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Economy & Markets

Knowledge of the economy and markets is essential to informed investing. In broad terms, an economy comprises the wealth and resources of a country or region, especially in terms of the production and consumption of goods and services. Financial markets refer broadly to any marketplace where the trading of securities occurs, including the stocks, bonds, currencies, among others. These articles could help broaden your understanding.
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Touchstone Asset Allocation Guidance

We believe we can add value by adjusting portfolio weights in response to changing market conditions and in anticipation of changing fundamentals. History demonstrates that risk assets move through repeated boom and bust cycles. While the economic cycle influences these cycles, they do not necessarily overlap with the risk asset cycle.
Economy & Markets
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U.S. Debt Burden

“The U.S. Federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path.…it’s probably time, or past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path." - Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell on 60 Minutes 2/3/24
Economy & Markets
767x370_InvestmentLetter 2024

2024 Investment Outlook: Little Fires Everywhere

One thing we feel strongly about is the Fed's commitment to get inflation down to their 2% target. We also note that the Fed is setting policy using data out of the rearview mirror. Given the lagged effects of monetary policy, this approach increases the odds for a Fed overshoot. This is at the core of our more cautious stance in asset allocation positioning.
Economy & Markets
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Economy & Markets Insights

Explore timely insights on the economy and markets. We evaluate historical data and statistical relationships to identify drivers or signals as of August 31, 2023.
Economy & Markets
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Asset Allocation Investment Outlook: April 2023

Crit Thomas shares his views on the market and timely insights about asset allocation.
Economy & Markets
US Debt

Concerns About Our Growing Debt Burden are Well Founded

Many are concerned about the absolute amount of debt held by the U.S. government as well as the increasing debt burden given higher interest rates. 
Economy & Markets
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Is There an Unsettling Debt Ceiling Fight on the Horizon?

Explore perspectives on the debt ceiling. We evaluate and analyze relevant points of view and directions. 
Economy & Markets
2023 Investment Letter

2023 Investment Outlook: Preparing for Opportunities to Knock

We see 2023 as a transition year and one that will offer opportunities to add more risk exposure.
Economy & Markets

2022 Investment Outlook: Recession Risk & Implications

With the risk of a recession likely; Crit touches on what kind of recession and how the markets may respond.
Economy & Markets
Update April 2022

Quarterly Themes Investment Update: April 2022

This is an update to the latest information presented in the Quarterly Themes Insights from February 28, 2022. We evaluate historical data and statistical relationships to identify drivers or signals as of April 15, 2022.
Economy & Markets
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Quarterly Themes Investment Update

This is an update to the latest information presented in the Quarterly Themes Investment Update from February 28, 2022. We evaluate historical data and statistical relationships to identify drivers or signals as of April 15, 2022.
Economy & Markets
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Food & Energy Prices Are Spiking

What does that mean for inflation and spending on other items?
Economy & Markets
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Russia Exposure

Touchstone Funds Exposure to Russian Securities in light of Ukraine Invasion and Russian Financial Markets Turmoil
Economy & Markets
2022 Investment Letter

Touchstone 2022 Investment Outlook: Pulling In Our Horns

With the tide of liquidity starting to move back out we are taking off the risk-on posture we advocated at the start of 2021 and think a shift back toward strategic weights may be prudent. We believe opportunities will develop over the course of 2022, which will lead to advantageous positioning changes.
Economy & Markets
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Are the Markets Moving into a New Phase?

We believe that the monetary and fiscal spigots have begun to close, moving us to a new phase in the markets – one that may feel more familiar with fundamentals driving returns, says Richard “Crit” Thomas, Touchstone’s global market strategist.
Economy & Markets, In the News
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Market & Election Update

Crit Thomas offers a brief update on his views of the markets, then shares his thoughts on the upcoming general election. Here’s his latest assessment.
Economy & Markets, In the News
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What a Biden Presidency Might Mean for the Markets

How might a change in the White House impact investors? Prevailing conditions, rather than party affiliation and campaign platforms, may offer greater insight into what a Biden presidency may portend for the markets.
In the News, Economy & Markets
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Disruption as a Difference Maker

In actively managing the Touchstone Sands Capital Select Growth Fund, its sub-advisor favors large cap growth companies that in its view use ‘dislocation and disruption’ to their advantage.
In the News, Active Investing, Economy & Markets
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How Will We Pay for All This Stimulus?

Can the U.S. inflate its way out of its debt problem when much of its growing deficit is in fact tied to inflation? Higher debt levels seem here to stay. What are the implications for future administrations and their ability to legislate?
In the News, Economy & Markets
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Will All This Fiscal Stimulus Eventually Stoke Inflation?

Inflation could surprise on the upside, should there be a rapid return to normalcy releasing pent-up demand on a supply-constrained economy.
Economy & Markets, In the News
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Will the Fed’s Printing Press Lead Us Down the Road to Perdition?

As Federal Reserve restarts quantitative easing, both stocks and bonds are at risk should inflation begin to surprise on the upside.
Economy & Markets
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Current High Yield Spreads Present Investment Opportunity

Today the high yield sector is providing historically healthy compensation in the form of the credit spread for taking on this risk. This opportunity, as with any, will not last indefinitely.
Economy & Markets, Income Investing
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Touchstone May 2020 Investment Letter

‘Red, then yellow, then green’ may signal the course of the global health crisis and its economic consequences. For now, caution marks the common direction of the markets.
Economy & Markets, In the News
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Stay Focused on the Long Term

History has demonstrated that long-term investors are best served by staying focused on their long-term strategic goals.
In the News, Economy & Markets
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Crit Thomas on Considering Coronavirus

The speed of this market decline has likely created market dislocations. Opportunities may exist for an active portfolio manager.
Economy & Markets, In the News
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COVID-19: Addressing the Changing Backdrop for Investors

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak continues to create uncertainty. Here are our thoughts and three rational actions for most investors to consider now depending on their situation.
Economy & Markets, In the News
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Fed Weighs Monetary Policy Implementation Changes

When Doves Fly: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) shift their monetary policy framework from looking out the windshield to using the rearview mirror?
Economy & Markets
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Did Asset Allocation Just Get More Difficult in 2019?

Asset allocation from a tactical standpoint has become more complex in 2019. Find out where we believe there are still pockets of opportunity.
Economy & Markets
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Why Is Market Timing So Hard?

The answer may be found in studying every S&P 500 bull market since 1935.
Economy & Markets
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Mexico & China: New Front in Tariff War Raises a Red Flag

While we continue to believe that the tariff war will begin to de-escalate later this year, near-term uncertainties are becoming more difficult to estimate.
Economy & Markets
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Emerging Markets: What If Trade Talks Break Down?

We believe there is low probability of a protracted trade war between the U.S. and China but think there will likely be intense downward pressure on equities – more so in emerging countries than in the U.S. – if this occurs.
Economy & Markets