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Economy & Markets
Knowledge of the economy and markets is essential to informed investing. In broad terms, an economy comprises the wealth and resources of a country or region, especially in terms of the production and consumption of goods and services. Financial markets refer broadly to any marketplace where the trading of securities occurs, including the stocks, bonds, currencies, among others. These articles could help broaden your understanding.
The best way to summarize our thoughts about 2025 is that it will be interesting. We are biased toward domestic equities, even more so with the GOP sweep, but we want to be careful with valuations. Unlike 2024, we believe income will play a bigger role in returns, though we remain slightly overweight equities.
We believe we can add value by adjusting portfolio weights in response to changing market conditions and in anticipation of changing fundamentals. History demonstrates that risk assets move through repeated boom and bust cycles. While the economic cycle influences these cycles, they do not necessarily overlap with the risk asset cycle.
Crit Thomas, CFA, CAIA, Erik M. Aarts, CIMA, Brian Cheyne, CFA, CIMA
“The U.S. Federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path.…it’s probably time, or past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path." - Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell on 60 Minutes 2/3/24
One thing we feel strongly about is the Fed's commitment to get inflation down to their 2% target. We also note that the Fed is setting policy using data out of the rearview mirror. Given the lagged effects of monetary policy, this approach increases the odds for a Fed overshoot. This is at the core of our more cautious stance in asset allocation positioning.
Explore timely insights on the economy and markets. We evaluate historical data and statistical relationships to identify drivers or signals as of August 31, 2023.
This is an update to the latest information presented in the Quarterly Themes Insights from February 28, 2022. We evaluate historical data and statistical relationships to identify drivers or signals as of April 15, 2022.
This is an update to the latest information presented in the Quarterly Themes Investment Update from February 28, 2022. We evaluate historical data and statistical relationships to identify drivers or signals as of April 15, 2022.
Crit Thomas offers a brief update on his views of the markets, then shares his thoughts on the upcoming general election. Here’s his latest assessment.
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak continues to create uncertainty. Here are our thoughts and three rational actions for most investors to consider now depending on their situation.
The answer may be found in studying every S&P 500 bull market since 1935.
Economy & Markets
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