Policy

Explore how election results fueled market optimism, driving U.S. stocks to new highs and highlighting small-cap outperformance. Gain insights into the potential economic implications of proposed tariffs, deregulation, and tax policy shifts, setting the stage for the markets in 2025.

The Hoover Institution sponsored a conference at Stanford University to commemorate the 50-year anniversary of the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC). It was founded by monetarist economists Allen Meltzer, Karl Brunner, and Anna Schwartz in the early 1970s when inflation spiked to a post-WWII high.

Explore how election momentum and economic shifts are shaping market volatility and interest rate expectations. Gain insights into how the Fed’s recent moves and consumer spending trends might impact stocks, bonds, and broader economic growth in the coming months.

China's government recently took policy actions to support economic growth by bolstering the country's property market and stock market. They represent a sea change from President Xi Jinping's previous stance in which he refrained from undertaking bold government stimulus.

The Federal Reserve recently began a new easing cycle by cutting the federal funds rate by a half percentage point at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Market participants took the news in stride, as they had expected the Fed to cut rates by that amount rather than by a quarter point.

Gain timely insights into the Fed's larger-than-expected rate cut, learn what to watch from upcoming labor market data, and explore the outlook for mortgage rate movement and investment implications.

Following the soft July jobs report that showed a 4.3% unemployment rate (up from 4.1% in June), some commentators worried that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to ease monetary policy to stave off a recession.

Stay ahead of the markets with our September 2024 Market Pulse, exploring the anticipated impact of the Fed's first rate cut and the evolving risks in equities.

As the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation shows signs of moderating, the Fed is holding interest rates steady, aiming for a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, the stock market has reached new highs driven by robust corporate profits and AI optimism, although high valuations may limit future gains.

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its next interest rate decision, mixed signals from the labor market present a complex picture. While nonfarm payrolls show strong growth, other indicators suggest a softening job market.

Will the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 be extended next year when many provisions are set to expire?

Recently, the dollar has surged against key Asian currencies, but does this pose a genuine problem for the U.S. and Japan?

Both Presidential candidates have emphasized the need to restore jobs that have been lost in manufacturing. However, does the focus on increasing manufacturing jobs make for good economic policy?

One of the most important debates today relates to the potential impact that generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) models will have on the U.S. labor market. Some observers see the ongoing process of automation as a harbinger for widespread layoffs, not only for low-skilled workers but also for more highly skilled professionals.

This issue of how effective sanctions are in dealing with recalcitrant nations is being discussed once again amid reports that Russia’s economy is faring better than expected two years after the U.S. and European Union imposed sweeping sanctions on it.

The question of "how concerned should investors be about the Western Alliance" is being raised on both sides of the Atlantic following recent statements by former President Donald Trump regarding NATO, in which he indicated a willingness to support Russia in its actions against NATO members who fall short on defense-spending goals.

What does the January jobs report mean for the strength of the economy and possible implications for the 2024 elections? And how does this impact the debate about whether the economy is headed for a recession?

While global investors focus on the prospects for the U.S. and China, they should not overlook the euro zone, where the economic outlook has shifted this year. The initial consensus was that Europe would be adversely impacted due to its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas. Instead, the euro zone economy proved resilient, primarily because of unexpected plunges in natural gas prices and crude oil.

World trade has slowed over the past five years due to tariffs imposed, supply chain disruptions, the Russian-Ukraine conflict, and, recently, U.S. export controls, which are intended to hinder Chinese advances in technology. The challenge for policymakers now is to find a way to ease tensions before fissures in the global trading system leave it divided.

Shockwaves over the debacle to elect Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) House Speaker have dissipated by now, but the fallout over raising the federal debt ceiling is just beginning. How will this play out and how will it impact the economy? 

As 2023 gets underway, most forecasts for the global economy are downbeat as central banks combat inflation by raising interest rates. Among developed economies, Europe faces the worst predicament because it is also impacted by a squeeze in natural gas supplies from Russia.

In the wake of the 2022 midterm elections, many observers believe the most likely outcome for fiscal policy over the next two years will be gridlock. This comes after the Democrats enacted major spending programs in the past two years.

During the past year, investors have fixated on how pro-active the Federal Reserve was in tackling inflation. What will happen if the Fed does not retain its 2% inflation target in 2023?