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For better or worse, policy influences markets. Learn how U.S. and global markets can be impacted by corporate tax rates, government regulation, the Federal Reserve and interest rates, inflation, tax reform legislation, trade policy, trade imbalances, and foreign policy.
Federal Reserve building

U.S. Monetary Policy & Market Expectations

The U.S. stock market’s surge since October has been linked to the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, but the main driver is expectations that the global economy will improve. The coronavirus scare is posing a test that will likely be temporary.
Policy, Markets
Stock ticker over skyline

Limited Policy Options for Global Weakness

While investors seem confident that policy easing by central banks will be effective in countering global weakness, economists are much less sanguine. 
boxing ring an example of us china trade conflict

Round #3 of the U.S.-China Trade Conflict

The tariff hikes announced this month is the third round of the trade war that began last year. 
Shipping containers with US and China flags

U.S. – China Showdown: A Key Test for U.S. Trade Policy

U.S. trade policy now appears headed for a showdown with China, as the administration is set to announce duties on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports.
Assessing the economic impact

Assessing the Economic Impact of Deregulation

One of the most controversial issues in public policy relates to the role of government regulation of the economy.
Flags of our countries - does foreign policy matter

Does Foreign Policy Matter to Markets?

Two developments, the G-7 meeting in Canada and the historic summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, have dominated the news in recent days. Yet, global markets have not reacted to either development.
Shipping container - US China trade conflict

U.S. – China Trade Conflict: What’s At Stake?

Following unusual calm in 2017, market volatility has increased this year primarily for two reasons. 
treasury department

Assessing Treasury Yields: The Shape of Things to Come

The Treasury bond market has come under scrutiny as the 10-year yield pierced 3% last week, while the yield curve has flattened considerably over the past year.
factory line US trade policy in flux

U.S. Trade Policy in Flux

Trade policy issues have moved front and center in the wake of President Trump’s announcement to impose duties on imports of steel and aluminum.
US trade policy and the dollar

U.S. Trade Policy & the Dollar

The U.S. dollar has come under pressure this year after steadying in late 2017, even though economic data have been supportive and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates several times.
What's down on inflation

What’s Down on Inflation?

Inflation continues to be elusive even as growth in the economy, domestic and global, marches towards normalization.
Anticipating the biggest tax changes in generations

Anticipating the Biggest Tax Changes in a Generation

With the passage of a Senate version of a tax bill that is close to the House bill, the stage is set for the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code since the Reagan era.
manufacturing jobs imbalanced

Trade Imbalances & Manufacturing: A Macro View

One of the hallmarks of Donald Trump’s theme of America First is the need to restore lost jobs in manufacturing owing to unfair foreign competition.
The Federal Reserve building

The Fed Begins to Shrink Its Balance Sheet

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce it will begin to shrink its balance sheet over the next few years at this month’s FOMC meeting.
podium preparing for corporate tax cuts

Corporate Tax Cuts Versus Tax Reform Revisited

As part of “the largest tax cut in history” the Trump Administration is proposing to lower the corporate tax rate.
US Capitol Building

Healthcare, the Budget & Tax Reform

Controversial Trump Administration policies will be key to investors’ forecast for U.S. markets.
Sunset in Shanghai

China - U.S. Tensions Diminish…For Now

Notwithstanding adverse political news at home, the Trump rally has continued amid favorable economic news and investor optimism about pending corporate and personal income tax cuts.
president trumps controversial trade policy

President Trump's Controversial Trade Policy

Donald Trump ran for office on restoring lost jobs in manufacturing by renegotiating trade deals and imposing tariffs on imports from countries that are deemed to hurt American workers. Now that he is President, market participants are focusing on what he will do.