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Markets
Our detailed analyses and expectations for U.S. and global markets – including regular outlooks for the beginning of the year and midyear updates – will help you decipher domestic and overseas market surges, slumps, signals, and surprises.
The debate among investors at the beginning of 2024 focused on how long the economy could sustain above trend growth and whether inflation would continue to decelerate. As we look ahead, most economists have lowered the likelihood of a recession this year considerably amid continued strong economic data, but risks to the bullish outlook remain.
The question of "how concerned should investors be about the Western Alliance" is being raised on both sides of the Atlantic following recent statements by former President Donald Trump regarding NATO, in which he indicated a willingness to support Russia in its actions against NATO members who fall short on defense-spending goals.
An inverted yield curve, in which yields on longer-dated bonds are below those for shorter-dated instruments, has correctly predicted the last nine U.S. recessions in the post-World War II era. However, this winning streak could be coming to an end, as the U.S. economy has displayed surprising resilience to the Federal Reserve’s tightening during the past two years.
With the U.S. economy performing surprisingly well and the stock market setting record highs, many investors call what is happening the "Goldilocks economy." The main concern now is geopolitical, with the possibility that the Israeli-Hamas conflict could spread throughout the Middle East. However, there is also the risk of a global trade conflict with China that is going unnoticed.
Last year was not a good time for China’s stock markets to say the least. The Shanghai CSI index and Hong Kong index ended 2023 down by 11% and 14%, respectively, while the MSCI World index closed the year 22% higher.
Expect the oil market to remain balanced in 2024 with oil in the low $70s, a level which could have a minor impact on non-OPEC growth. Midstream equities, under such a scenario, should experience some modest volume growth, while upstream producers could see lower cash flows relative to 2023.
What does the January jobs report mean for the strength of the economy and possible implications for the 2024 elections? And how does this impact the debate about whether the economy is headed for a recession?
One of the most important issues for investors and policymakers alike is understanding the potential impact that generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) models will have on the economy and labor market.
Financial markets often surprise investors, but the past year defied virtually all forecasts. The prevailing view at the start of the year was that aggressive tightening by the Fed would produce a recession. Instead, economic growth far surpassed expectations at 2.6% according to Fed estimates.
As investors look ahead to 2024, the central concern on their minds is the extent to which the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in the new year.
In anticipation of the upcoming year, investors are eminently focused on a pivotal question: Are the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes concluded, and is a rate reduction on the horizon for the next year? While interest rate expectations always matter, the gyrations of financial markets – stocks, bonds, and the dollar — have been dominated the past two years by expectations about what the Federal Reserve will do.
While global investors focus on the prospects for the U.S. and China, they should not overlook the euro zone, where the economic outlook has shifted this year. The initial consensus was that Europe would be adversely impacted due to its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas. Instead, the euro zone economy proved resilient, primarily because of unexpected plunges in natural gas prices and crude oil.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting was widely expected, given Chair Jerome Powell and other officials previously signaled the outcome.
Investors have come to accept that the Fed will keep rates “higher for longer.” Meanwhile, prospects for a soft landing have improved as core inflation has come down significantly this year. Still, investors must assess whether the U.S. economy can stay resilient now that interest rates are positive in real terms and economies abroad are weakening.
As China's economy has struggled to gain traction this year, many investors accept that its economic growth rate will be below the government’s official target of 5%, which is reflected in a significant underperformance of China's stock market relative to the U.S. and other global peers in the past four months.
The U.S. economy’s performance this year has been an enigma for many people. Real GDP growth has been stronger than expected, while inflation has fallen more quickly than expected.
The first half of 2023 was full of surprises. Bond yields surged initially and then subsequently fell back in early April when several regional banks encountered problems. By midyear, however, yields had risen again as the economy proved resilient to Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index, which had fluctuated in a broad trading range since mid-2022, broke decidedly to the upside in the second quarter, reaching its highest level since April 2022.
After fluctuating in a broad trading range since the middle of last year, the S&P 500 Index broke decisively to the upside in June, reaching its highest level since April 2022.
Many investors are uncertain about what to do with spare cash. Fortunately, for the first time in more than a decade, they can earn a reasonable return on their cash holdings now in money market funds.
The Fed is following its standard procedure of separating the conduct of monetary policy, which is geared to achieve low inflation and full employment, from regulatory policy that is intended to preserve financial stability. The view is that monetary policy should not be altered when a financial institution becomes insolvent unless it is systemically important. While this makes sense in theory, there are many gray areas in implementing policy.
The bond market experienced one of the most volatile quarters in history in the first quarter of 2023. There also remains uncertainty about how widespread issues are in the banking sector and how these could impact the economy as a whole. We believe that if a recession does transpire, it will be mild, as household and business balance sheets are strong.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused not only a geopolitical earthquake but also a storm of uncertainty for U.S. investors and the global economy at large.
When President Biden assumed office two years ago, proponents of free trade hoped it would signal a break from President Trump’s protectionist stance. To the chagrin of many, Biden’s trade policy remains a mystery.
This question has surfaced in the wake of blockbuster jobs growth in January. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 and were accompanied by upward revisions in the two previous months, while the household survey posted nearly a 900,000 increase. They resulted in the unemployment rate falling to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969. Is this a statistical fluke?
2022 was one of the worst years for U.S. stocks and bonds, as inflation spiked to a four-decade high. Looking ahead, the key issue for investors is whether Fed tightening will spawn a U.S. recession. Fort Washington’s Senior Economic Advisor Nick Sargen shares a 2023 outlook for the economy and how we are positioning investment portfolios.
Nearly two thirds of economists foresee a U.S. recession in 2023, according to a recent Wall Street Journal survey. Economists are skeptical that the Federal Reserve can keep raising interest rates to cool inflation without causing businesses to lay off workers.
A myriad of issues—Fed policy, inflation, recession in Europe, and a weakening of China’s economy—will likely cause global markets to stay volatile amid unusually high uncertainty.
A weakening of China’s property market would have spill-over effects to China’s main trading partners in Asia, Europe, and North America and would likely reverberate throughout global markets.
For the first time in the post-war era, the global economy has been buffeted by two shocks—the worst public health disaster in one hundred years combined with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What should investors do amid the heightened uncertainty?
COVID-19, international war, and inflationary concerns have all created a ripple effect through the stock market and the economy. It’s still uncertain whether the United States will fall into a recession; however, looking at certain trends from our history allows us to gain insight on what we may expect in the near future.
Markets are likely to stay volatile, and we are maintaining a moderate overweight in risk assets on the view that markets have priced in higher interest rates and a soft economy.
At a time when both U.S. stocks and bonds have sold off significantly, the U.S. dollar has exhibited considerable strength against most currencies. Thus far, U.S. policymakers have not expressed concern about the dollar’s strength, as it helps to temper high inflation. But, it could become an issue if a deteriorating trade imbalance weakens the U.S. economy at some point.
Many investors feel considerable uncertainty about what to do with their portfolios. Weakness in markets can be unsettling, but investors should avoid short-term decisions that may compromise long-term goals and objectives.
Periods of market volatility are often reminders for investors to ensure investment strategies and risk tolerance are properly aligned. In this episode, we discuss recent market volatility, its implications for investors, and considerations for portfolio positioning going forward.
Returns for emerging markets equities have trailed those in the U.S. considerably for more than a decade now, while emerging markets bonds have fared relatively well versus U.S. bonds until this year.
Several factors—including elevated inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—have the potential to impact the strength of the U.S. economy in the coming year.
History suggests that whenever there is geopolitical conflict, financial markets have reacted the most when energy prices spike and the Fed tightens monetary policy.
The impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have added unease to already volatile financial markets. Investors grappling with higher inflation and Fed tightening are now faced with further uncertainty that will undoubtedly keep financial markets on edge.
The average 30-year fixed-rate home loan has increased to 3.6% from 3.1% at the end of last year, which is the highest level since the coronavirus pandemic struck two years ago. This raises the question about how the U.S. housing market would respond to ongoing Fed tightening.
Looking at the year ahead, several questions remain. Will the coronavirus pandemic finally be reined in? How will bond yields fare as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy? And, will risk assets continue to outperform?
Investors do not appear rattled by inflation news, and 10-year Treasury yields are little changed at just over 1.5%, implying investors are willing to accept a negative real yield of more than 2 percent to hold government debt.
Even though we see the economic outlook as generally favorable after a strong stock market run and re-opening activity, we recognize that market volatility may increase, and some investors may be turning cautious—due to a variety of risk factors.
Evergrande, China's largest property developer, faces a possible default. A selloff of China's property market would have major repercussions for China's economy—and perhaps the global economy.
With economic activity back near pre-pandemic levels and relief programs about to expire, the Fed now faces the challenge of interpreting full employment to determine monetary policy.
The logic is that the over long periods the valuation of the stock market should mirror the performance of the economy. However, there can be significant deviations in the interim owing to cyclical forces.
Since Xi Jinping became China’s leader in 2012, he has taken steps to reverse the trend of allowing China’s communist system to evolve into a more market-oriented model in which private businesses coexist alongside state-owned enterprises.
Investors have faced a nearly 40 basis point drop in Treasury bond yields over the past month. Two competing explanations have been put forth, and it is important to understand both because they have different implications for financial markets.
Forecasts of a powerful U.S. recovery this year appear on target. Looking ahead, the key call for investors will be whether the pickup in inflation will be temporary or sustained.
Most observers expect at least a temporary surge in inflation as the economy reopens from the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is greater uncertainty about the outlook beyond this year.
The bottom line is that in addition to their inherent risks, cryptocurrencies now face added regulatory burdens. For these reasons, we believe privately issued digital currencies should be considered speculative instruments.
The case for the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and to raise interest rates will become compelling well before its expected timetable of 2024.
The U.S. economy is poised for a powerful expansion but markets are likely to be choppy as the economy accelerates and inflation approaches the Fed's threshold.
The $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus plan has been greeted enthusiastically by investors as the U.S. stock market has set record highs. However, with the U.S. budget deficit reaching extreme levels, some economist are concerned the U.S. economy could overheat and lead to inflation.
Fort Washington's Senior Economic Advisor Nick Sargen shares a 2021 outlook for the economy and markets and how we're positioning investment portfolios.
The costs of outsized deficits may not be apparent now, but they will become more visible in the future if federal spending is not brought under control.
The U.S. economy made huge strides in recovering from business shutdowns but without the slowing of COVID-19 the economy is still not out of the woods. Our Senior Economic Advisor reflects on the third quarter, previews what’s on the horizon for the balance of 2020, and expands on possible changes in fiscal policy if Biden wins the November elections.
The U.S. stock market is in correction territory and the issue investors now face is whether the pull-back represents a buying opportunity or is the harbinger of more to come.
Joe Biden intends to unwind key provisions of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act to finance new initiatives as promised during his campaign. Surprisingly, thus far, the stock market has not reacted even though Republicans have decried the proposal and polls show Biden with a decisive lead. This article explains why.
Investors need to weigh whether a slimmed down stimulus bill or no bill would threaten economic recovery. Read why Nick Sargen says that the recovery is unlikely to be derailed in either event as long as there aren't widespread shutdowns of businesses.
There is a high degree of uncertainty about how the economy will fare in the balance of 2020 and into 2021. Many investors are upbeat that it is headed for a quick recovery, but most economists believe recovery will be gradual and uneven following an initial bounce. What weighs on Fed officials is the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus cases that could hinder the re-opening of businesses.
The May jobs report surprised many investors who were prepared for a large increase in the jobless rate. While the news was a relief to the Federal Reserve, the numbers underestimate the full impact of COVID-19 on labor. Even though the U.S. stock market is back to levels before the pandemic, the path to recovery is still unclear.
Small businesses have been significantly affected by the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. The federal government has prioritized these businesses, passing a second bill supplementing the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). However, opinions on PPP vary. In the first quarter, many larger cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks, but small caps have shown signs of recovery.
While the U.S. stock market reversed about half of its prior sell-off, it is likely to remain volatile. There is considerable uncertainty about how long it will take to reopen businesses fully and how severe the fallout of coronavirus will be on the global economy and commodity prices.
Investors are now assessing when recovery will begin and what shape it will take, posing the question: What lies ahead? The answer hinges on the spread of the coronavirus and how quickly businesses and jobs can be restored.
The coronavirus shock is different from previous ones. However, the four-step framework we use to analyze the shocks on markets is still relevant today.
The conflict over oil and growing worries about COVID-19 marks the first time the global economy experienced simultaneous supply shocks. Markets are now signaling a tipping point has been reached with the global economy on the cusp of recession.
Investor sentiment about the coronavirus has shifted as the virus spreads. While forecasters have been lowering projections for global growth in 2020, we see a U.S. recession as unlikely and are positioning balanced portfolios close to their strategic allocations.
The U.S. stock market’s surge since October has been linked to the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, but the main driver is expectations that the global economy will improve. The coronavirus scare is posing a test that will likely be temporary.
With the S&P 500 Index up by 380% since the bull run began in March 2009, investors are wondering what can stop it. This commentary examines the usual suspects – risk of higher interest rates and recession – as well as uncertainty about the upcoming elections.
Nick Sargen provides his takeaway from a conference sponsored by the Center for Financial Stability in Washington, D.C. that featured the global economy.
Senior Economic Advisor Nick Sargen shares his insight on monetary policy easing, trade tensions and the impact on the U.S. economy, and possible investment implications.
Plunging bond yields and heightened stock market volatility have caused investors to worry. Our view is a further slowing of the economy is likely, but we do not yet see signs of recession.
Fed-fueled investor optimism could be overstated and running head long into slowing earnings growth and reignited trade war tensions. This article cuts to the chase on the major drivers and potential obstacles for today’s markets.
Do investors see the glass half full or half empty? Equity investors are more optimistic while bond investors are more wary of the economic outlook as explained in our midyear outlook.
Following a remarkable run from November 2016 through September 2018, the U.S. stock market ended last year with the steepest quarterly decline since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
After rising to a record high in September, the U.S. stock market experienced a steep sell-off in October. Recent market volatility could be a preview of what’s in store for next year.
Markets were unusually calm in the first half of this year even though the U.S. economy grew less than expected and healthcare legislation stalled, which has delayed passage of a tax bill.
Theresa May’s decision to call an early election as Prime Minister has come back to haunt her: Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn mounted a credible campaign that denied the Conservative Party a parliamentary majority.
The “Trump Trade” fades following President Trump’s surprise victory on November 8, investors responded by buying equities and other risk assets, while treasury yields and the dollar surged.
Donald Trump’s surprise victory has unleashed animal spirits, with U.S. stocks and the dollar surging as investors anticipate a pro-growth strategy and an end to government dysfunction.
The rally in risk assets continued in the third quarter driven by expectations that near record low interest rates will continue for the foreseeable future.
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