Skip to Main Navigation Skip to Main Content


Our detailed analyses and expectations for U.S. and global markets – including regular outlooks for the beginning of the year and midyear updates – will help you decipher domestic and overseas market surges, slumps, signals, and surprises. 
slackline as an example of a tipping point

Markets Signal a Possible Tipping Point

Plunging bond yields and heightened stock market volatility have caused investors to worry. Our view is a further slowing of the economy is likely, but we do not yet see signs of recession.
Markets, Fixed Income, Equities
wall street in nyc

U.S. Stock Market Confronts Lackluster Earnings

Fed-fueled investor optimism could be overstated and running head long into slowing earnings growth and reignited trade war tensions. This article cuts to the chase on the major drivers and potential obstacles for today’s markets. 
glass half full an example of the economic outlook

2019 Midyear Update: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Do investors see the glass half full or half empty?  Equity investors are more optimistic while bond investors are more wary of the economic outlook as explained in our midyear outlook.
is global slowdown nearly over

Is the Global Slowdown Nearly Over?

U.S. and overseas markets have rallied since the beginning of this year, as investors anticipate moderate U.S. growth and low inflation. 
conflicting market signals which view is correct

Conflicting Market Signals: Which View Is Correct?

The stock market rally in the first two months of this year has recouped most of the losses during the steep selloff late last year. 
china slowdown cyclical or secular

China Slowdown: Cyclical or Secular?

One of the challenges investors confront is to assess whether China's economic slowdown is primarily cyclical or secular.
Skiing - adapting to a high volatility world

2019 Outlook: Adapting to a High Volatility World

Following a remarkable run from November 2016 through September 2018, the U.S. stock market ended last year with the steepest quarterly decline since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
lighthouse - market signals an end to the Trump bump

Markets Signal an End to the “Trump Bump”

During this quarter, the stock market's gains for the year have been erased amid perceptions U.S. growth has peaked.
Markets after the midterms

Markets After the Midterms

After rising to a record high in September, the U.S. stock market experienced a steep sell-off in October. Recent market volatility could be a preview of what’s in store for next year.
Volatile graph - trump trade lives on

The Trump Trade Lives On

Strong economic growth and robust corporate profits propelled the U.S. stock market to a record high in the third quarter.
Wall Street subway stations

Midyear Update: Global Equity Markets at an Inflection Point

Following a strong start in January, global equity markets have retraced some of their gains while volatility has increased from record lows.
Equity Market turns volatile

Equity Markets Turn Volatile

In January, the U.S. stock market experienced its first correction of 10% in more than a year, ending the first quarter down marginally.
what market volatility signaling

What Market Volatility Is Signaling

Recent stock market gyrations have caused investors to reassess the underpinnings of the market’s steady rise since the 2016 elections.
2018 Outlook

2018 Outlook: Solid Economy, But No Encore for Markets

2017 was a stellar year for global equities fueled by renewed investor confidence amid a synchronized world expansion.
water splashes against the banks

Surge in Risk Assets Intensifies

Equities, High Yield bonds, and other risk assets posted another strong showing in the third quarter.
Paddling - Calm for how long?

Markets at Midyear: Calm for How Long?

Markets were unusually calm in the first half of this year even though the U.S. economy grew less than expected and healthcare legislation stalled, which has delayed passage of a tax bill.
A tale of two counties - UK and France

A Tale of Two Countries: UK & France

Theresa May’s decision to call an early election as Prime Minister has come back to haunt her: Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn mounted a credible campaign that denied the Conservative Party a parliamentary majority.
Trump Rally at Inflection tax documents

The Trump Rally at an Inflection Point

The “Trump Trade” fades following President Trump’s surprise victory on November 8, investors responded by buying equities and other risk assets, while treasury yields and the dollar surged.
weathervane on buiding

2017 Outlook: Is Trump’s Election a Game-Changer?

Donald Trump’s surprise victory has unleashed animal spirits, with U.S. stocks and the dollar surging as investors anticipate a pro-growth strategy and an end to government dysfunction.
markets re-price risk

Markets Re-Price Risk

The rally in risk assets continued in the third quarter driven by expectations that near record low interest rates will continue for the foreseeable future.