Our detailed analyses and expectations for U.S. and global markets – including regular outlooks for the beginning of the year and midyear updates – will help you decipher domestic and overseas market surges, slumps, signals, and surprises.
The conflict over oil and growing worries about COVID-19 marks the first time the global economy experienced simultaneous supply shocks. Markets are now signaling a tipping point has been reached with the global economy on the cusp of recession.
Investor sentiment about the coronavirus has shifted as the virus spreads. While forecasters have been lowering projections for global growth in 2020, we see a U.S. recession as unlikely and are positioning balanced portfolios close to their strategic allocations.
The U.S. stock market’s surge since October has been linked to the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, but the main driver is expectations that the global economy will improve. The coronavirus scare is posing a test that will likely be temporary.
With the S&P 500 Index up by 380% since the bull run began in March 2009, investors are wondering what can stop it. This commentary examines the usual suspects – risk of higher interest rates and recession – as well as uncertainty about the upcoming elections.
Fed-fueled investor optimism could be overstated and running head long into slowing earnings growth and reignited trade war tensions. This article cuts to the chase on the major drivers and potential obstacles for today’s markets.
Theresa May’s decision to call an early election as Prime Minister has come back to haunt her: Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn mounted a credible campaign that denied the Conservative Party a parliamentary majority.