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Markets

Our detailed analyses and expectations for U.S. and global markets – including regular outlooks for the beginning of the year and midyear updates – will help you decipher domestic and overseas market surges, slumps, signals, and surprises. 
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China flag on a compass.

Is It Finally Time to Invest in China?

China's government recently took policy actions to support economic growth by bolstering the country's property market and stock market. They represent a sea change from President Xi Jinping's previous stance in which he refrained from undertaking bold government stimulus.
Economics, Markets, Policy
long road approaching sunset

Fed Easing & China’s Stimulus Package Boost Equities

Investor optimism has been boosted in the U.S. and China due to recent policy developments—the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point and an easing of monetary policy and a larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus package in China. Meanwhile, the upcoming presidential election has not had a major impact on financial markets to date. Amid this, we explore portfolio positioning.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
Seaplane in the ocean lagoon.

Monthly Market Pulse — October 2024

Gain timely insights into the Fed's larger-than-expected rate cut, learn what to watch from upcoming labor market data, and explore the outlook for mortgage rate movement and investment implications.
Economics, Policy, Markets, Fixed Income
wildflowers growing in desert

Leveraged Credit Markets: Then and Now

Learn how structural changes in leveraged credit markets are reshaping high-yield credit spreads, and gain insights for strategic portfolio positioning.
Fixed Income, Markets
Tightrope walker high in the mountains.

What Market Indicators Are Signaling About Recession

Following the soft July jobs report that showed a 4.3% unemployment rate (up from 4.1% in June), some commentators worried that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to ease monetary policy to stave off a recession.
Economics, Markets, Policy
Parachutist in air. Soft-landing concept.

Monthly Market Pulse — September 2024

Stay ahead of the markets with our September 2024 Market Pulse, exploring the anticipated impact of the Fed's first rate cut and the evolving risks in equities.
Markets, Equities, Policy
Dollar Sign US Currency American Flag Chess pieces on a chessboard Finance Concept.

The Economy & Markets at Midyear

As the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation shows signs of moderating, the Fed is holding interest rates steady, aiming for a 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, the stock market has reached new highs driven by robust corporate profits and AI optimism, although high valuations may limit future gains.
Markets, Economics, Policy, Equities
Collage of images showing business people working.

Fed's Interest Rate Decision Hinges on Mixed Labor Market Signals

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its next interest rate decision, mixed signals from the labor market present a complex picture. While nonfarm payrolls show strong growth, other indicators suggest a softening job market.
Policy, Economics, Markets
U.S Capitol building with American flag flying

A Practical Case for Extending Corporate Tax Cuts

Will the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 be extended next year when many provisions are set to expire?
Policy, Markets
Japanese yen banknote and American dollar.

Is the Strong Dollar – Weak Yen Really a Problem?

Recently, the dollar has surged against key Asian currencies, but does this pose a genuine problem for the U.S. and Japan?
Economics, Policy, Markets
waterfall in lush forest

Let the Good Times Roll

The debate among investors at the beginning of 2024 focused on how long the economy could sustain above trend growth and whether inflation would continue to decelerate. As we look ahead, most economists have lowered the likelihood of a recession this year considerably amid continued strong economic data, but risks to the bullish outlook remain.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
Photography of a glass globe on a circular puzzle.

Navigating Investor Concerns Amidst Western Alliance Challenges

The question of "how concerned should investors be about the Western Alliance" is being raised on both sides of the Atlantic following recent statements by former President Donald Trump regarding NATO, in which he indicated a willingness to support Russia in its actions against NATO members who fall short on defense-spending goals.
Policy, Markets, Equities
Aerial view of a large corn maze.

The Yield Curve's Streak of Forecasting Recessions Might Be Over

An inverted yield curve, in which yields on longer-dated bonds are below those for shorter-dated instruments, has correctly predicted the last nine U.S. recessions in the post-World War II era. However, this winning streak could be coming to an end, as the U.S. economy has displayed surprising resilience to the Federal Reserve’s tightening during the past two years.
Fixed Income, Markets, Economics
Cracked brick wall painted with an American flag on the left and a Chinese flag on the right.

Renewed Trade Tensions With China Could Threaten America's 'Goldilocks Economy'

With the U.S. economy performing surprisingly well and the stock market setting record highs, many investors call what is happening the "Goldilocks economy." The main concern now is geopolitical, with the possibility that the Israeli-Hamas conflict could spread throughout the Middle East. However, there is also the risk of a global trade conflict with China that is going unnoticed.
Markets, Economics, Policy
China economics financial crisis concept. Stock photo of China's flag with a red declining arrow positioned in front of a dark clouds background.

Why Investors Should Not Rush Into China's Stock Market

Last year was not a good time for China’s stock markets to say the least. The Shanghai CSI index and Hong Kong index ended 2023 down by 11% and 14%, respectively, while the MSCI World index closed the year 22% higher.
Equities, Markets
Image with concept of Growth diagram crude oil stock price graph.

Oil, Gas, and Geopolitics in 2024: Saudi Arabia Hanging the Sword of Damocles Over the Oil Market

Expect the oil market to remain balanced in 2024 with oil in the low $70s, a level which could have a minor impact on non-OPEC growth. Midstream equities, under such a scenario, should experience some modest volume growth, while upstream producers could see lower cash flows relative to 2023.
Economics, Markets, Policy
Bull statue on the chess board.

The Blockbuster Jobs Report Should End All Doubts About the Economy

What does the January jobs report mean for the strength of the economy and possible implications for the 2024 elections? And how does this impact the debate about whether the economy is headed for a recession?
Economics, Policy, Markets
abstract illustration of AI technology

The Generative AI Productivity Boom is Coming — Just Don’t Try to Guess When

One of the most important issues for investors and policymakers alike is understanding the potential impact that generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) models will have on the economy and labor market.
Markets, Wealth Management
Landscape image of White Sands National Park in New Mexico

2024 Outlook: Has the Good News Been Priced Into Markets?

Financial markets often surprise investors, but the past year defied virtually all forecasts. The prevailing view at the start of the year was that aggressive tightening by the Fed would produce a recession. Instead, economic growth far surpassed expectations at 2.6% according to Fed estimates.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
Federal Reserve building in Washington DC at sunrise

The Fed Will Lower Interest Rates—But By Less Than What Bondholders Expect

The Fed has signaled it is close to pivoting monetary policy as officials become more confident that inflation is on the path toward its 2% target.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
Businessman looks at the horizon through a telescope.

Interest Rate Cuts Are on the Horizon

As investors look ahead to 2024, the central concern on their minds is the extent to which the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in the new year.
Policy, Markets, Economics
Predict the economic future concept with crystal ball and stock charts projected.

The 2024 Financial Landscape Is All About the Fed

In anticipation of the upcoming year, investors are eminently focused on a pivotal question: Are the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes concluded, and is a rate reduction on the horizon for the next year? While interest rate expectations always matter, the gyrations of financial markets – stocks, bonds, and the dollar — have been dominated the past two years by expectations about what the Federal Reserve will do.
Policy, Economics, Fixed Income, Markets
Business chart arrow down on EURO flag background.

Germany: The 'Sick Man of Europe' and Its Implications for the Euro

While global investors focus on the prospects for the U.S. and China, they should not overlook the euro zone, where the economic outlook has shifted this year. The initial consensus was that Europe would be adversely impacted due to its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas. Instead, the euro zone economy proved resilient, primarily because of unexpected plunges in natural gas prices and crude oil.
Economics, Policy, Markets
Wooden blocks with interest rate percent of bank with US dollars.

An Extended Pause on Fed Interest Rate Hikes Is Prudent for Us All

The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting was widely expected, given Chair Jerome Powell and other officials previously signaled the outcome.
Economics, Policy, Markets
yellow wildflower growing in desert

How Long Will the U.S. Economy Stay Resilient?

Investors have come to accept that the Fed will keep rates “higher for longer.” Meanwhile, prospects for a soft landing have improved as core inflation has come down significantly this year. Still, investors must assess whether the U.S. economy can stay resilient now that interest rates are positive in real terms and economies abroad are weakening.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
High angle view of Shanghai World Financial Center and Jin Mao Tower.

China's Growth Slowdown: Global Investors Should Take Notice

As China's economy has struggled to gain traction this year, many investors accept that its economic growth rate will be below the government’s official target of 5%, which is reflected in a significant underperformance of China's stock market relative to the U.S. and other global peers in the past four months.
Economics, Markets
laser cutting metal

The Anomaly of High U.S. Profit Margins and a Tight Labor Market

The U.S. economy’s performance this year has been an enigma for many people. Real GDP growth has been stronger than expected, while inflation has fallen more quickly than expected. 
Economics, Markets
hawk flying above a forest of trees

2023 Midyear Update: A Clear Message from the Fed Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The first half of 2023 was full of surprises. Bond yields surged initially and then subsequently fell back in early April when several regional banks encountered problems. By midyear, however, yields had risen again as the economy proved resilient to Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index, which had fluctuated in a broad trading range since mid-2022, broke decidedly to the upside in the second quarter, reaching its highest level since April 2022.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
bull and bear figurines representing bull market and bear market

How to Navigate the Bull Run in Stocks

After fluctuating in a broad trading range since the middle of last year, the S&P 500 Index broke decisively to the upside in June, reaching its highest level since April 2022.
Markets, Wealth Management
king chess piece on top of dollar bills

Cash Is King for Now

Many investors are uncertain about what to do with spare cash. Fortunately, for the first time in more than a decade, they can earn a reasonable return on their cash holdings now in money market funds.
Markets, Wealth Management
calm lake with pier

Why Is the Stock Market So Calm?

One of the biggest anomalies so far this year is how calm the U.S. stock market has been while gyrations in bond yields have been unusually large.
Markets, Wealth Management
Fed building at sunset

Should Monetary Policy and Regulatory Policy Be Separate?

The Fed is following its standard procedure of separating the conduct of monetary policy, which is geared to achieve low inflation and full employment, from regulatory policy that is intended to preserve financial stability. The view is that monetary policy should not be altered when a financial institution becomes insolvent unless it is systemically important. While this makes sense in theory, there are many gray areas in implementing policy.
Economics, Markets
fishing boat with fog in the distance

Bank Runs Spell More Uncertainty for the Economy

The bond market experienced one of the most volatile quarters in history in the first quarter of 2023. There also remains uncertainty about how widespread issues are in the banking sector and how these could impact the economy as a whole. We believe that if a recession does transpire, it will be mild, as household and business balance sheets are strong.
Markets, Economics, Wealth Management
russian oil rig

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict is a Wildcard for Investors

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused not only a geopolitical earthquake but also a storm of uncertainty for U.S. investors and the global economy at large.
Economics, Markets
zen garden

The Debate Over 60/40 Portfolios: The Fed’s Role in Distorting Capital Market Pricing

Are investors still striking the right balance with the popular 60/40 portfolio?
Economics, Markets, Wealth Management
shipping container going under bridge

The Continuing Mystery of Biden’s Trade Policy

When President Biden assumed office two years ago, proponents of free trade hoped it would signal a break from President Trump’s protectionist stance. To the chagrin of many, Biden’s trade policy remains a mystery.
Economics, Markets
A puzzle of people with missing pieces

How Can Job Growth Be So Strong When the Economy Is Soft?

This question has surfaced in the wake of blockbuster jobs growth in January. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 and were accompanied by upward revisions in the two previous months, while the household survey posted nearly a 900,000 increase. They resulted in the unemployment rate falling to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969. Is this a statistical fluke?   
Economics, Markets
man climbing ice mountain

The 2023 Outlook: Policymakers Are Constrained as Recession Risks Loom

2022 was one of the worst years for U.S. stocks and bonds, as inflation spiked to a four-decade high. Looking ahead, the key issue for investors is whether Fed tightening will spawn a U.S. recession. Fort Washington’s Senior Economic Advisor Nick Sargen shares a 2023 outlook for the economy and how we are positioning investment portfolios.   
Economics, Markets, Wealth Management
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