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Economics

Take a deeper dive into the global repercussions of recent political events and explore the economic forces of inflation, wages, interest rates, taxes, unemployment, and national currencies and their potential effects on investors and policymakers, in the U.S. and around the world. 
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How Will We Know if Biden’s Agenda Succeeds or Fails?

As President Biden will find out, the easy part of governing is identifying worthy public needs; the hard part is paying for public programs and making sure they deliver on their objectives.
Policy, Economics
balloon inflating

Inflation Creep: What to Monitor so There’s No Surprise

The case for the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and to raise interest rates will become compelling well before its expected timetable of 2024. 
Economics, Markets
Wall Street

Are Equity Investors More Keynesian or Supply Side Oriented?

The policy shift that is occurring is an opportunity to test the precepts of Keynesian economics that embrace the government’s role in the economy versus supply side policies that favor tax cuts and deregulation.
Equities, Economics
episode 2

Episode 02, Economic Liftoff & Potential Risks

Fort Washington veterans weigh in on the U.S. economy and highlight some of the important issues investors are facing today. 
Economics, Policy
economic liftoff

Preparing for Economic Liftoff and What Ensues

The U.S. economy is poised for a powerful expansion but markets are likely to be choppy as the economy accelerates and inflation approaches the Fed's threshold.
Economics, Markets
US Capitol rotunda

Will Outsized Budget Deficits Spawn Inflation?

The $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus plan has been greeted enthusiastically by investors as the U.S. stock market has set record highs. However, with the U.S. budget deficit reaching extreme levels, some economist are concerned the U.S. economy could overheat and lead to inflation.
Economics, Markets
income inequality

Tackling Income Inequality: Which Policies Will Make a Difference?

The Biden administration is tackling the issue of widening income inequality. Here’s his plan to alter the trend.
Policy, Economics
U.S. dollar

The Consensus on the U.S. Dollar Is Too Bearish

Views about U.S. financial markets are relatively upbeat but forecasts for the dollar are calling for continued weakness.
Economics
podcast image

Podcast: Positioning for 2021

With a new administration and new congressional leadership, how should investors consider positioning portfolios in 2021? 
Economics, Policy
busy street

2021 Outlook: Anticipating a Return To Normalcy

Fort Washington's Senior Economic Advisor Nick Sargen shares a 2021 outlook for the economy and markets and how we're positioning investment portfolios.
Markets, Economics
white house

How the Biden Administration Plans To Tackle Income Inequality

One of the main objectives of the incoming administration is to counter growing income inequality in America. However, investors are likely to judge the Biden administration’s policies primarily by how they impact the U.S. economy overall.
Economics, Policy
small business reopening

The COVID Relief Bill: Why Compromise Is Back in Washington, D.C.

Congress crafts a plan providing much-needed relief for COVID-19. Several factors coalesced encouraging Congressional leaders to reach an agreement but it may be difficult to sustain the spirit of compromise.
Economics, Policy
Capitol Building

Why Don’t Outsized Budget Deficits Matter?

The costs of outsized deficits may not be apparent now, but they will become more visible in the future if federal spending is not brought under control.
Economics, Markets
us dollar

The End of the Dollar’s Remarkable Surge

The U.S. dollar experienced a remarkable run over the past decade. March became the turning point coinciding with unprecedented U.S. policy actions to combat COVID-19. The dollar is likely to remain under pressure for the balance of the year and into 2021.
Economics
surfer in ocean

2020 Midyear Outlook: Navigating Cross Currents

There is a high degree of uncertainty about how the economy will fare in the balance of 2020 and into 2021. Many investors are upbeat that it is headed for a quick recovery, but most economists believe recovery will be gradual and uneven following an initial bounce. What weighs on Fed officials is the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus cases that could hinder the re-opening of businesses.
Markets, Economics
two paths

May Jobs: Recovery Is Underway, but the Path Is Uncertain

The May jobs report surprised many investors who were prepared for a large increase in the jobless rate. While the news was a relief to the Federal Reserve, the numbers underestimate the full impact of COVID-19 on labor. Even though the U.S. stock market is back to levels before the pandemic, the path to recovery is still unclear. 
Markets, Economics
international currency

Fighting Coronavirus: Who Will Pay?

While the U.S. government’s efforts to combat COVID-19 will likely lead to a post-war record budget deficit, bond yields have fallen to record lows amid a global recession. The long-term prognosis is problematic, however, because deficits are likely to remain abnormally high this decade.
Economics
upside down world

The Coronavirus Shock Versus Others

The coronavirus shock is different from previous ones. However, the four-step framework we use to analyze the shocks on markets is still relevant today. 
Markets, Economics
tipping point

Tipping Point for the Global Economy

The conflict over oil and growing worries about COVID-19 marks the first time the global economy experienced simultaneous supply shocks. Markets are now signaling a tipping point has been reached with the global economy on the cusp of recession.
Economics, Markets
clouds lifting over mountain

Are the Trade Clouds Finally Lifting?

For the past 18 months, the greatest risk to the global economy and markets has been the ongoing escalation in the trade conflict between the U.S. and China. 
Economics
Edge of cliff as an example of being on the brink

Quarterly Commentary: Back From the Brink

Senior Economic Advisor Nick Sargen shares his insight on monetary policy easing, trade tensions and the impact on the U.S. economy, and possible investment implications. 
Markets, Economics
Shipping containers will trade war spawn currency war

Will the Trade War Spawn a Currency War?

Investors should be prepared for market turbulence as the trade war with China could escalate further.
Economics
treasury building an example of us bonds

U.S. Bond Yields Plummet

Ten-year yields currently are around 2.1%, their lowest level since mid-2017, and about 115 basis points below the high of 3.25% reached last November.
Fixed Income, Economics
Austin Texas suburban countryside

What Will End History's Longest Economic Expansion?

The current economic expansion is about to surpass the ten-year mark, which would make it the longest in U.S. history.  
Economics
Complete puzzle - the enigma of the tame wage increases

The Enigma of Tame Wage Increases

An ongoing puzzle for investors and policymakers alike is the tame pace of wage increases even as unemployment (U-3) has fallen below 4%.
Economics
micro shot of american currency

What’s Ailing the U.S. Dollar?

The U.S. dollar has weakened against most currencies this year and especially against the euro. This flies in the face of forecasts that called for it to strengthen.
Economics
France - time to consider Europe

Time to Consider Europe

Emmanuel Macron’s election as President of France has buoyed European markets, as it is the third election this year in which populist candidates have been defeated.
Economics
person voting during election

2016 Election Surprise: Focus on Trump’s Economic Policies

The immediate effect of Donald Trump's victory is likely to be heightened market volatility while market participants will assess the economic policies of the Trump Administration.
Economics
bear and bull market

Trump Economics: Reaganomics With a Dose of Mercantilism

Donald Trump unveiled his plans for the U.S. economy. Specifically, he pledged to restore growth of 3.5% per annum and to create 25 million jobs over the next decade.
Economics
chinese town in the mountains

Origins of China's Miracle & Relevance Today

Deng’s approach combined strategic planning by the central government with decentralized decision making at the regional and local levels.
Economics
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